Out of all the teams in the wild card race – the Red Wings, the Flyers, the Penguins, even the Islanders, it’s the Washington Capitals the Rangers draw in the first round of the 2024 NHL Playoffs.
I’ll start by turning back the clock to say I have a ton of respect for Alex Ovechkin and the “Rock The Red” era of the Washington Capitals. So many battles that defined the 2010s between the Henrik Lundqvist-led Rangers and Ovechkin & the Caps in his prime. Washington got the best of the first two matchups in 2009 and 2011, before the Rangers prevailed in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Some of my favorite Ranger memories in the playoffs are against the Capitals, namely Derek Stepan’s Game 7 OT winner to cap off a 3-1 comeback in the series.
Almost equally as memorable was Chris Kreider’s tying goal late in the 3rd in Game 5 to keep the series alive, prior to Ryan McDonagh’s OT winner. I remember being thrilled to just save face at that point.
Well that was 2015, fast forward a few years and the Capitals are Stanley Cup Champions in 2018. At the time, and still now, I’m stoked Ovechkin won and got his flowers. He’s a one of one human being and hockey player, an icon around the world and probably the best goal scorer to ever play the game.
He’s sitting at 853 goals at the moment and there’s no doubt in my mind he’s surpassing Gretzky’s 894 by the time he calls it quits. A legendary chase powered by a diet of Subway, Cheetos and Coca Cola. The guy is a national treasure.
Well that was 2018, now it’s 2024 and the Capitals aren’t quite the same team. Only Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie and Tom Wilson remain from the Stanley Cup winning roster. There’s been a lot of turnover and the days of a lethal, high octane offense are in the past. These days, they’re led by a fiery rookie head coach in Spencer Carbery, who’s done an unbelievable job in recognizing the type of roster he has and playing to their strengths.
Put simply, the Capitals win games by playing in the mud. They’re not going to blow you away with fancy sequences off the rush or blazing speed through the neutral zone. They’ve found success by taking the body, keeping things simple and staying in the fight. Their MVP down the stretch has to be Charlie Lindgren in net, who’s enjoying a renaissance in his career and stopped 66 of the last 67 shots on goal to finish the regular season. The Capitals seem to have a ton of good mojo going in the locker room – with plenty a guys in the back nine of their careers, coming back from injury, or recreating themselves like Lindgren, all refusing to listen to outside noise and just enjoy the ride.
All that being said, this Capitals squad isn’t exactly a daunting playoff opponent for the President’s Trophy winning Rangers. The Capitals qualified for the playoffs with a -37 goal differential on the year, the worst since the 1990-1991 Hartford Whalers. You only get to a -37 number over the span of an entire season with glaring flaws and clear weaknesses in your game. You have to believe ex-Capitals and now current Rangers head coach, Peter Laviolette, is perfectly positioned to strategize a plan to exploit those weaknesses.
The Rangers (-450) find themselves in a unique position as heavy favorites going into the series. And they’re the favorites for good reason, it’s truly been a magical year for the Blueshirts. They’ve found ways to continue to win hockey games all season long and answered the bell every single time adversity struck. They finished with a league high 114 points, a franchise best 55 wins on the season and feel good stories up and down the roster. It’s been a year to remember in so many ways, but spring has sprung, the slate is wiped clean and now it’s a race to 16 wins for the ultimate glory.
For the Rangers to beat the Capitals and win the Lindgren Bowl, they’re going to need to take things one game at a time. It’s a cliché, everyone says it, but with this series especially, I think it’s going to be paramount. On paper, this is a lopsided matchup with a decided edge to the Rangers in nearly every facet of the game. Unfortunately for the Rangers, these series aren’t simulated and must be played out on the ice.
Carbery & the Capitals know they’re up against the odds. They know they barely squeaked into the playoffs and hear everyone around them squawking about their goal differential. They believe they can win this series but also realize it’s a long shot. I expect them to put their work boots on and dirty the waters. Extracurriculars after the whistle, hits along the boards that flirt with minor penalties, you name it. Anything to stay alive.
The Rangers need to be diligent in recognizing the Capitals’ acts of desperation to throw them off their game. There will be huge swings in momentum within the game and game to game; I expect these games to be highly emotional and not without controversy. The Capitals have nothing to lose and that can be a scary opponent to get in the ring with.
As far as Tom Wilson’s concerned, I’m hoping the Rangers can read the room. Truth be told, he’s a unicorn of an enforcer in the modern era and a true playoff performer. There will be a time to put him in his place and there will be a time to pretend like he’s not even there. I’m confident the Rangers coaching staff has communicated a plan for everyone on the ice to know the difference.
Another goal of the Rangers’ coaching staff is likely to close this series out in 5 games, if not 4. Avoiding unnecessary games is a cheat code in these NHL playoffs, where rest and recuperation while watching Game 6s and 7s always beats playing in them. I think back to the 2022 Rangers playoff run, where they beat the Penguins & Canes in 7 games, went up 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals against Tampa and seemingly completely ran out of gas. I think there will be a huge emphasis on taking care of business early, grabbing control of the series and not looking back. Something tells me that’s the idea behind the “teeth out” mantra that’s surfaced.
All that said, this is the New York Rangers we’re talking about and nothing is ever easy. I think Charlie Lindgren will be able to steal a few games where the Rangers’ offense stalls at 5v5, but the Rangers ultimately rally and prevail.
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